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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like th🐓at made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of mat🌜ch is determined of coincidence🐓 by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All team🍬s in the Bundesliga have about theꦫ same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that 🍷in addition to that teams perform especia🌠lly well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a matc🐲h. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2🎉,8.
Ra🔥ther not. 46 % of all wins are based upon a one-goal-m𝐆argin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% o𝄹f matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80💛s, the number of away wins is constan꧂tly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet💎 on highe♕r results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpo🦩se of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities🍷 are a lot m𒁃ore informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determin🍌ed before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a 𒁃goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific aver🍸age Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance le𝕴vel = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more rel🎶iable goals and opportunities display the performanc🐓es of teams.
A football match is do❀minated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of 🔴coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perf𒐪ectly predict the performance level.
The ♔goal difference is determined♈ by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not s♏tatistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does 🔜not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your f🐬oot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conv📖ersion of effective goalscoring opp𒁏ortunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reasonꦐ a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the seasꦏon..
No. In fact only🤪 in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s sear꧒ch for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we✤ know! 🌄But it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.